On July 8, 2025, U.S. copper futures experienced an unprecedented surge—jumping by 13–17%, the largest one-day gain since 1968. The spike followed President Trump’s announcement of a 50% import tariff on copper, signaling a shift in trade policy under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.
The Big Jump
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COMEX copper futures soared over 12%, reaching a record $12,330/metric ton (~$5.645/lb), marking the biggest single-day advance on record.
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The move reflected a wave of front-running—traders rushed in ahead of the tariff’s expected implementation by August .
Why the Tariff Matters
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The tariff was designed to boost domestic copper production and smelting, as the U.S. imports nearly half its copper—mainly from Chile and Canada.
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Global producers, notably Chile’s Codelco, are cautiously assessing the move, awaiting details on affected products and exemptions.
Broader Market Impacts
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The tariff could inflate manufacturing costs, affecting industries from EVs to infrastructure, and potentially add further inflationary pressure
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Freeport-McMoRan, a top U.S. copper miner, has seen strong gains this year and welcomed the policy change.
Global Outlook & Next Steps
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Traders globally are navigating arbitrage distortions—U.S. prices are now significantly above LME levels, prompting stock draws and import pressure.
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Market eyes are on the effective date of the tariff, expected by late July or August 1, and on tariff scope—country-specific or universal?
Final Takeaway
Copper futures’ explosive gains reflect an advanced economic policy with wide-reaching consequences. For industrial users, the tariff raises raw materials costs, while for miners and market speculators, it unlocks profit opportunities. As tariff implementation nears, volatility is likely to stay high, making timing and strategy crucial for investors participating in commodity markets.
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